To the spoiler goes the win
Bob Barr secured the Libertarian Party nomination at the LP convention in Denver over this past weekend. For those who don't follow third party politics, the Libertarian presidential nominee in 1988 was Ron Paul. He basically had the same platform then that he did during his current primary run. Bob Barr was probably picked by the delegates specifically because he has similarities with Dr. Paul. Don't expect me to start evangelizing his name though. Mr. Barr was a short sighted Republican until recently, and even before that was a short sighted Democrat. He has shifted his rhetoric on most of the LP talking points, but in the end find himself on the hilarious side of opposing things he used to chair. He was the anti-drug coordinator for the Department of Justice (libertarians are usually pro drug legalization to some extent). He promoted the idea that the practice of Wicca should be banned in the military (restricting religious rights would be a big libertarian no-no), and he is generally hard on immigration (a position he happens to share with Ron Paul). With this background he doesn't have the practice to back up the rhetoric he'll use, but at the same time he's likely to win most of his votes from lapsed traditional conservatives.
Barr has hired a political strategist who worked on the Ron Paul campaign and another who worked on the Perot campaign. He'll be stealing votes directly from the traditional conservative Republican base, the same base that is unhappy with McCain's nomination. I'll predict right now that he'll have as much if not more impact than Nader did in 2000. If you want Obama to win in November, send some money to Bob Barr... seriously.
I've discussed this issue previously with friends and family but I really think Obama is going to have a tougher time in November than many people believe. Around 15% of democrats over the age of 65 voted for Obama. This November more people will vote. More people over 65 will vote. Democrats traditionally think of themselves as progressive... yet only 15% over 65 voted for Obama in the primaries. Imagine what will happen among the general electorate. If the older Democrat is any indication, Obama's race will be more of a hindrance this November than it ever was in the primary. Bob Barr's nomination might help things for Obama if enough votes can be shifted from McCain to Barr.
On that note, I'm voting for Barr in November. A protest vote? Maybe. He might not be a libertarian in action but the man is a small government conservative through and through.
Barr has hired a political strategist who worked on the Ron Paul campaign and another who worked on the Perot campaign. He'll be stealing votes directly from the traditional conservative Republican base, the same base that is unhappy with McCain's nomination. I'll predict right now that he'll have as much if not more impact than Nader did in 2000. If you want Obama to win in November, send some money to Bob Barr... seriously.
I've discussed this issue previously with friends and family but I really think Obama is going to have a tougher time in November than many people believe. Around 15% of democrats over the age of 65 voted for Obama. This November more people will vote. More people over 65 will vote. Democrats traditionally think of themselves as progressive... yet only 15% over 65 voted for Obama in the primaries. Imagine what will happen among the general electorate. If the older Democrat is any indication, Obama's race will be more of a hindrance this November than it ever was in the primary. Bob Barr's nomination might help things for Obama if enough votes can be shifted from McCain to Barr.
On that note, I'm voting for Barr in November. A protest vote? Maybe. He might not be a libertarian in action but the man is a small government conservative through and through.
Hmmm...so if you vote for Barr and I vote for Obama, it doubles Obama's vote count, right? So I'm better off still voting for Obama, right? Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteI'm just saying Barr will probably entice traditional conservatives away from McCain. Ole McCain isn't exactly well liked by traditional conservatives or neo-conservatives. Obama will never be able to win over a traditional or neo-conservative... but Barr might look like a better choice for those who might have voted for McCain. Barr is almost a hero amongst the Newt Gingrich Republican crowd. He's the guy that headed up the Clinton impeachment investigation. These aren't things that make him a good libertarian, but they are things that make him a good spoiler to McCain.
ReplyDeleteRe:15% of Old people.
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly what we saw in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton had at least 85% of the old people. What that doesn't convey however is that Obama got votes from a lot of people who had never voted before. Obama absolutely swamped Clinton in our precinct because the only democrats that Clinton got were seniors and more especially senior women. As Clinton will hopefully have conceded the nomination to Obama at the convention at the very least, Obama will no longer be competing with Clinton for the Seniors. He will undoubtedly lose some to McCain, I guess the question is how many.
We'll see in November. My only reason for the post was to point out a rather nice outcome. I would far prefer Obama to McCain, but policy wise I just can't get myself to vote for him in November. I don't see large differences in the two policy wise. I do however see huge differences in their ability to speak and maneuver politically. Obama will undoubtedly help our standing in world politics. He will make a wonderful ambassador to the rest of the world, far better than any other candidate including Ron Paul. I honestly think he'll be able to drastically change the perception of the US by the rest of the world, but I don't think he'll be able to change the direction of the country. Will he bail out more companies, or throw more money at floundering business models? Will he begin to cut US farm subsidies? I just feel my voice will be better heard if I give my vote to a third party candidate who, while highly flawed, will undercut the current GOP and in the off chance he were to actually win would be a radical enough to institute massive cuts in the power of the executive branch.
ReplyDeleteI could never convince some people to vote for Obama... however I can easily convince them to vote for a third party rather than McCain.